Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Sell low.... or wait?

Now that June is here, it's time for most fantasy owners to look at their under-performing (or non-performing) players and start do decide just how much longer they are willing to carry them.  Case in point:  Mark Teixeira.  If you have drafted Tex, you most likely did in the first round (avg pick 10.2 in Yahoo leagues), which means that you are probably pulling your hair out right now knowing that you either need to trade him for half his value, or sit him on the bench and start a backup 1B -- neither are good options for your #1 draft pick.

Teixeira is a notoriously bad April hitter -- career .237 avg and .700 OPS, a far cry from his .286/.911 career numbers.  And when the calendar turned May and Tex hit .400 over the first 8 days, including a 3 HR game, he seemed to back to business as usual.  So what do you make of the fact that on June 8th, he's hitting .211 with a .689 OPS and only 8 HR's... playing in that stadium... in the middle of that lineup...??  Honestly, I don't know.  But what I do know is that you definately don't want to sell low, unless you get comparable undervalue in return (such as Prince Fielder, for example).  Otherwise, you need to ride out the slump.  He struggled almost as bad last year (granted not into June) and still finished with 39 HR's and and 122 RBI.  It's a stretch to think he's going to hit those numbers, but a couple 8-9 HR months are not out of the question.  For a little encouragement, here are Tex's career numbers for June - Sept

June:  170 games -- .271 avg, 40 HR, 128 RBI, .900 OPS
July:   174 games -- .284 avg, 41 HR, 119 RBI, .898 OPS
Aug:   198 games -- .311 avg, 49 HR, 162 RBI, .972 OPS
Sept:  183 games -- .305 avg, 50 HR,  166 RBI .994 OPS

So it's obvious that Tex gets better as the year goes on.  Unless there is something seriously wrong with him physically right now, expect his numbers to return to normal over the next few weeks.  In the meantime, hope there are no more 5 strikeout, 0-6 games...

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