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Monday, May 31, 2010
Spot starters for June 1, 2010
Now that June is here, I am going to start putting up a daily list of spot starters I like for the following day. Spot starters will be guys owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues, who I like for a solid game. I'll also keep a running tally of how my picks are doing:
- Ted Lilly (48% owned) - Lilly has struggled early this season, but is coming off a 7 shutout inning no decision vs. the Dodgers. He had 5 K's and only gave up 3 hits against a potent lineup. Look for another solid performance against Pittsburg tomorrow.
- Rich Harden (43% owned) - Many people have given up on Harden this year, but I like him tomorrow against the White Sox. The White Sox offense has been non existent this year, and historically June is Harden's best ERA, WHIP, Batting Average Against, and K/9 month. I'm a little worried about facing Buehrle in Chicago... but I have a good feeling about Harden.
- Nick Blackbun (23% owned) - Blackburn is coming of 5 straight wins, and is one of the truly underrated starters out there. He does give up his share of hits, but has only given up 2 homeruns in his last 5 starts (37.1 innings - including a complete game). He also gets a lot of ground balls and is 2nd in the majors in getting batters to ground into double plays, making his 1.41 WHIP a bit less worrysome.
Good luck!
- Ted Lilly (48% owned) - Lilly has struggled early this season, but is coming off a 7 shutout inning no decision vs. the Dodgers. He had 5 K's and only gave up 3 hits against a potent lineup. Look for another solid performance against Pittsburg tomorrow.
- Rich Harden (43% owned) - Many people have given up on Harden this year, but I like him tomorrow against the White Sox. The White Sox offense has been non existent this year, and historically June is Harden's best ERA, WHIP, Batting Average Against, and K/9 month. I'm a little worried about facing Buehrle in Chicago... but I have a good feeling about Harden.
- Nick Blackbun (23% owned) - Blackburn is coming of 5 straight wins, and is one of the truly underrated starters out there. He does give up his share of hits, but has only given up 2 homeruns in his last 5 starts (37.1 innings - including a complete game). He also gets a lot of ground balls and is 2nd in the majors in getting batters to ground into double plays, making his 1.41 WHIP a bit less worrysome.
Good luck!
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Tough break...
Hello all you Angels fans and Kendry Morales owners… how’s your Memorial Day weekend going? I don’t mean to rub it in, but only in baseball do injuries like this happen. Morales just hit a walk-off grand slam only to break his ankle while jumping on home plate as his teammates mobbed him… I guess technically it’s not a walk-off homerun if you are taken off the field on a stretcher…
So, what’s done is done. Now what? Before you start offering crazy deals to the guy with two stud first baseman, or taking this as a sign that you are spending too much time of fantasy baseball and mailing in the rest of the season, consider some of the following options:
1) Paul Konerko – currently owned in 81% of Yahoo leagues. Started the season on fire, and has cooled off a lot. If he’s available take him. If not, see if the current owner wants to dump (I doubt he’s anyone’s #1 1B, and with his current struggles, they are probably willing to move). Konerko is better than his .256 average and only strikes out about 89 times/full season. His HR production has dropped a bit over the last few years, but he has 14 already this year. His best power months over his career are June and July, and his best Batting Average months are June and August.
2) Nick Swisher – currently owned in 71% of Yahoo leagues. Swisher has good power, which becomes great power hitting at Yankee Stadium, and this year is hitting .327 on the road as well. Anyone on the Yankee offense is a safe play, but Swisher has been hot of late, and adds versatility with OF eligibility as well. His average probably won’t stay above .300 all year, but he’ll probably be good for 30-35 homeruns.
3) Adam LaRoche – Currently owned in 55% of Yahoo leagues. LaRoche has been a consistent performer all season. He had 25 HR, and 83 RBI last year while bouncing around with 3 different teams. His strikeouts are a little high, but he’s a good option compared to a lopsided trade.
4) Ike Davis: Mets prospect has been pretty good right out of the gate. Hitting over .270 in the cleanup spot. Big strong lefty bat with tons of potential. He’s a little young at 23 years old, but has tremendous upside.
Guys I would avoid:
1) David Ortiz – If he’s still available in your league, pick him up. Otherwise, don’t offer any value in a trade. Odds are, whoever has him picked him off of waivers and is looking to sell high. He’s still technically in a platoon situation against lefties, which makes him one slump away from losing AB’s.
2) Troy Glaus, Todd Helton, Jose Lopez, Mark Teahen… All past their prime and not worth the risk.
So, what’s done is done. Now what? Before you start offering crazy deals to the guy with two stud first baseman, or taking this as a sign that you are spending too much time of fantasy baseball and mailing in the rest of the season, consider some of the following options:
1) Paul Konerko – currently owned in 81% of Yahoo leagues. Started the season on fire, and has cooled off a lot. If he’s available take him. If not, see if the current owner wants to dump (I doubt he’s anyone’s #1 1B, and with his current struggles, they are probably willing to move). Konerko is better than his .256 average and only strikes out about 89 times/full season. His HR production has dropped a bit over the last few years, but he has 14 already this year. His best power months over his career are June and July, and his best Batting Average months are June and August.
2) Nick Swisher – currently owned in 71% of Yahoo leagues. Swisher has good power, which becomes great power hitting at Yankee Stadium, and this year is hitting .327 on the road as well. Anyone on the Yankee offense is a safe play, but Swisher has been hot of late, and adds versatility with OF eligibility as well. His average probably won’t stay above .300 all year, but he’ll probably be good for 30-35 homeruns.
3) Adam LaRoche – Currently owned in 55% of Yahoo leagues. LaRoche has been a consistent performer all season. He had 25 HR, and 83 RBI last year while bouncing around with 3 different teams. His strikeouts are a little high, but he’s a good option compared to a lopsided trade.
4) Ike Davis: Mets prospect has been pretty good right out of the gate. Hitting over .270 in the cleanup spot. Big strong lefty bat with tons of potential. He’s a little young at 23 years old, but has tremendous upside.
Guys I would avoid:
1) David Ortiz – If he’s still available in your league, pick him up. Otherwise, don’t offer any value in a trade. Odds are, whoever has him picked him off of waivers and is looking to sell high. He’s still technically in a platoon situation against lefties, which makes him one slump away from losing AB’s.
2) Troy Glaus, Todd Helton, Jose Lopez, Mark Teahen… All past their prime and not worth the risk.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Jesus is coming...
I took a small hiatus, but now I’m back. Currently in 1st place in my 10 team total points league, and 4th place and gaining in my 10 team head-to-head dynasty league (come on Prince Fielder!). Let’s get this rolling again.
So the calendar is just about to turn June. This is the time when many teams prepare to roll out their can’t miss, hopefully-ready-for-the-big-time studs that they’ve been saving on the shelf in order to keep under their control for one extra year. Enter Stephen Strasburg. Expect to see Strasburg make his MLB debut around the first weekend of June.
Nicknamed “Jesus” by future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez because when he throws the ball, everyone says “Jesus!”, Strasburg brings a lot of hype with him. He also brings a triple-digit fastball and a 12 to 6 hammer that freezes batters a la Pedro Martinez. While the sample size is still small, his domination of the minor leagues is undeniable. In 9 minor league starts, he boasts a 6-1 record, 0.99 ERA, and 54 K’s in 45 1/3 innings. His AAA starts are even more impressive with a 3-0 record, 0.39 ERA (1 earned run in 23 1/3 innings) and opposing batters are hitting .139 against him. In short, this kid is ready. Dwight Gooden/Tim Lincecum ready. I’d like to see him struggle just once in the minors, just to see how he comes back from it, but I don’t know if that’s going to happen. Not by next week anyways.
Chances are, he’s not available in your league (owned in 81% of Yahoo leagues on 5/27). But if he is, grab him now. Even if he takes a couple major league starts for him to get comfortable, he will be worth it. There are hot prospects, and then there are rare talents, and few people in baseball history could do what this kid can do. I just hope playing in Washington doesn’t hold him back.
So the calendar is just about to turn June. This is the time when many teams prepare to roll out their can’t miss, hopefully-ready-for-the-big-time studs that they’ve been saving on the shelf in order to keep under their control for one extra year. Enter Stephen Strasburg. Expect to see Strasburg make his MLB debut around the first weekend of June.
Nicknamed “Jesus” by future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez because when he throws the ball, everyone says “Jesus!”, Strasburg brings a lot of hype with him. He also brings a triple-digit fastball and a 12 to 6 hammer that freezes batters a la Pedro Martinez. While the sample size is still small, his domination of the minor leagues is undeniable. In 9 minor league starts, he boasts a 6-1 record, 0.99 ERA, and 54 K’s in 45 1/3 innings. His AAA starts are even more impressive with a 3-0 record, 0.39 ERA (1 earned run in 23 1/3 innings) and opposing batters are hitting .139 against him. In short, this kid is ready. Dwight Gooden/Tim Lincecum ready. I’d like to see him struggle just once in the minors, just to see how he comes back from it, but I don’t know if that’s going to happen. Not by next week anyways.
Chances are, he’s not available in your league (owned in 81% of Yahoo leagues on 5/27). But if he is, grab him now. Even if he takes a couple major league starts for him to get comfortable, he will be worth it. There are hot prospects, and then there are rare talents, and few people in baseball history could do what this kid can do. I just hope playing in Washington doesn’t hold him back.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
The Jason Heyward experiment
Jason Heyward is undoubtedy the hottest prospect in baseball for 2010. And since Atlanta has announced that Heyward will be heading to Altanta to start the season with the big league club, Heyward has been flying off the draft board. In the last few days, Heyward's ADP has jumped from the low 200's to 183 in Yahoo draft's which it huge for this late in the spring. I've been asked by a few people what I think about Heyward and drafting him this year. I actually don't have him in any of my leagues (even my dynasty league), and I'm ok with that (for this year). Here are my feelings on Heyward for 2010:
1) Age. He's only 20. With all the hype, and spring training craziness, it's hard to overlook this point. No 20 year old (not named Ted Williams) walks right into the majors and dominates. Heywards raw power is undeniable, but with the quality of pitching in the NL, there is definately going to be some growing pains.
2) Experience. Heyward has 226 games of minor league ball under his belt, with 176 at the A level, 47 at AA, and only 3 games at AAA. In those 226 games, he has 28 homeruns. To me, that makes it pretty obvious that a 25-30 homerun projection for this season seems a little over optimisitc.
3) Shin Splints? Heyward was left out of the game today because of shin splints. If he has a nagging injury like this going into the season, don't expect a lot of stolen bases. Also, the team is going to treat Heyward with kid gloves. Any sign of injury will put him on the bench, or back to AAA. Even an early season slump could get him a trip back to AAA to avoid destroying his confidence.
Don't get me wrong... I like Heyward. A lot. Since Bond's retired, OF's have taken a back seat in the top tier of the power department to A-Rod and first basemen. Heyward could be the second coming of Hank Aaron. But not yet. Not in 2010... maybe not even in 2011. Plenty of people are salivating over Heyward this year, so if you have him, now is a great time to trade him. If he's available after pick 200, and you want to take a risk, go ahead, but don't reach for him unless you are in a dynasty league and can lock him up for 3 to 4 years. As far as projections, if he can get 140+ starts this year, I've got him at 18 HR's, 70 RBI, 65 Runs, 7 Steals, .275 Batting Average. To me, that sounds like a great season for a 20 year old, but not quite the astronomical numbers some people are talking about.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Closers -- Battles and value
If your draft is done, or if you are looking to pick up some later round closers, there are definitely still plenty of saves out there. The nice thing about getting Saves is that you don’t always have to have the big names on the top teams. You can get almost as good of numbers if you wait patiently and get some lesser known closers:
Minnesota: With Joe Nathan out for the year, the closers job is up for grabs. Don’t count the Twins out from making a deal for a closer (Heath Bell’s name has been thrown out there), but right now, it’s between John Rauch, who has some experience closing, and Matt Guerrier, Nathan’s set up man. Though they might both see some save opportunities, it’s likely Rauch will be the guy.
Toronto: This one is totally up in the air. Toronto brought in Kevin Gregg in the offseason, but his 5.40 spring ERA is not helping. Scott Downs just gave up his first runs of spring the other night, but the fact that he’s one of the few lefty’s in the pen means he might be used more as situational relief. That leaves Jason Frasor who started off horrendous, but has shown improvement, and looks to be the favorite right now. I’d wait-and-see on this one… no matter who they name the closer, it’s probably going to be up for grabs well into April.
Houston: Brandon Lyon was slated to be the closer in the offseason, but since he is just returning from a shoulder injury now, it looks like Matt Lindstrom will get the nod to start the season. Lindstrom struggled some last year, so this could be a battle all year long to see who gets the ball in the 9th inning.
Cleveland: Kerry Wood will start the season on the DL (Shocker!) so Chris Perez will start the season as the closer. Perez throws hard but might not be ready to close games just yet. Last season he had 5 save chances and blew 3 of them and finished the season with a 4.32 era. He does have strikeout stuff, but we’ll see if he’s got the closer mentality.
Here’s a quick list of other closers you can get late that have little-to-no competition for the closer duties: Octavio Dotel (Pittsburg), Matt Capps (Washington), Mike Gonzalez (Baltimore), Leo Nunez (Florida).
Minnesota: With Joe Nathan out for the year, the closers job is up for grabs. Don’t count the Twins out from making a deal for a closer (Heath Bell’s name has been thrown out there), but right now, it’s between John Rauch, who has some experience closing, and Matt Guerrier, Nathan’s set up man. Though they might both see some save opportunities, it’s likely Rauch will be the guy.
Toronto: This one is totally up in the air. Toronto brought in Kevin Gregg in the offseason, but his 5.40 spring ERA is not helping. Scott Downs just gave up his first runs of spring the other night, but the fact that he’s one of the few lefty’s in the pen means he might be used more as situational relief. That leaves Jason Frasor who started off horrendous, but has shown improvement, and looks to be the favorite right now. I’d wait-and-see on this one… no matter who they name the closer, it’s probably going to be up for grabs well into April.
Houston: Brandon Lyon was slated to be the closer in the offseason, but since he is just returning from a shoulder injury now, it looks like Matt Lindstrom will get the nod to start the season. Lindstrom struggled some last year, so this could be a battle all year long to see who gets the ball in the 9th inning.
Cleveland: Kerry Wood will start the season on the DL (Shocker!) so Chris Perez will start the season as the closer. Perez throws hard but might not be ready to close games just yet. Last season he had 5 save chances and blew 3 of them and finished the season with a 4.32 era. He does have strikeout stuff, but we’ll see if he’s got the closer mentality.
Here’s a quick list of other closers you can get late that have little-to-no competition for the closer duties: Octavio Dotel (Pittsburg), Matt Capps (Washington), Mike Gonzalez (Baltimore), Leo Nunez (Florida).
2010 Fantasy Sleepers -- Starting Pitchers
As always, starting pitching can be a crap shoot. Pitchers (not named Lincecum) are much more injury prone and therefore, are riskier to draft high. I typically will take one stud pitcher near round 5-6, and then wait a few rounds before I take a few more. As always, your league rules/settings will determine the best picks, but I’ve outlined a few guys that will help you this year and you won’t need to burn a high pick on them. Thanks for checking me out, and I hope this helps:
Brandon Webb – I love taking elite pitchers coming off of major injuries. Last year I got Chris Carpenter late in all my leagues and he was lights out. Look for similar things from Webb this year, and you can pick him up around round 12-14, though he may not be ready to go until late April/early May.
Tim Hudson – Same deal as Webb, looks good in the spring so far, and is being drafted in rounds 18-20.
Jonathan Sanchez – Electric stuff. His ERA, BA against, and WHIP have all dropped each year over the last 3 years, while his K’s have increased. This is the year he will put it all together, and the last year he will be cheap.
Brett Anderson – Next in the long line of A’s pitching prospects. Will be the ace of the staff by May.
Rich Harden – Injury prone, but his K/9 is outstanding, and that Texas offense will give the starters a lot of wins this year.
Phil Hughes – Has great stuff, and was just named Yankees #5 starter. Will be around 1K/inning, and could come in below 1.20 WIP. Another pitcher who will steal wins even on bad days because of his potent offense.
Brandon Webb – I love taking elite pitchers coming off of major injuries. Last year I got Chris Carpenter late in all my leagues and he was lights out. Look for similar things from Webb this year, and you can pick him up around round 12-14, though he may not be ready to go until late April/early May.
Tim Hudson – Same deal as Webb, looks good in the spring so far, and is being drafted in rounds 18-20.
Jonathan Sanchez – Electric stuff. His ERA, BA against, and WHIP have all dropped each year over the last 3 years, while his K’s have increased. This is the year he will put it all together, and the last year he will be cheap.
Brett Anderson – Next in the long line of A’s pitching prospects. Will be the ace of the staff by May.
Rich Harden – Injury prone, but his K/9 is outstanding, and that Texas offense will give the starters a lot of wins this year.
Phil Hughes – Has great stuff, and was just named Yankees #5 starter. Will be around 1K/inning, and could come in below 1.20 WIP. Another pitcher who will steal wins even on bad days because of his potent offense.
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