Trade deadline moves from a Fantasy persepective

Here is a great article breaking down some of the recent trades from a fantasy perspective from Brad Berreman of Sportsbuff.com.

Breaking down the Oswalt trade

Well, the Phillies did it again.  The last two years have shown that not only are the Phillies committed to building a team to compete in the playoffs, but also that they understand how to do it.  Roy Oswalt adds depth to an already scary starting rotation that features Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels with a solid 4-5 of Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick.  It's hard to see anything other than a Yankees or Tampa Bay vs. Phili World Series this year.

On the other hand, the Astro's may not have done so bad themselves.  The first part of the deal is J.A. Happ.  At 27 last year, he was not your typical rookie, however, his 12-4 record with 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP were good enough to get him second in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting.  The 6'6" lefty is a solid performer, with a lot of upside.  His injury this year is cause for some concern, but he is a very good piece to the Astro's rebuilding effort.  The second part of the deal was two Phillies prospects, Anthony Gose and SS Jonathan Villar.  Gose was immediately traded to Toronto for power hitting 1B prospect Brett Wallace -- a long term solution to Lance Berkman.  Villar is a 19 year old speedster with 82 SB's in a 200 minor league games.  Wallace is major league ready, and will probably get a shot when rosters expand in September.  Villar is a few years away, but has some solid tools, and could be the Astros SS of the future.

All in all, both teams will benefit from this trade.  The Phillies right away, as they continue their Hall of Fame SP merry-go-round.  And the Astros for the future, as they add some solid pieces to their rebuilding effort.

Domonic Brown's under the radar?

Phillies Domonic Brown made a quiet debut last night... quiet because it came in the midst of the trade deadline, off the heals of another MLB no hitter, and during another ho hum complete game near-shutout for Roy Halladay.  In his major league debut, Brown had 2 hits, including a double, and 2 RBI.  The Phillies #1 prospect is a solid 5-tool player with unlimited potential.  At 22 years old, Brown cruised through the minors this year.  In 93 games, he hit .327 with 20 HR's and 17 SB's.  He has better-than-average patience for a young hitter, and he hasn't even grown into his 6'5" frame.  He became available in Yahoo leagues yesterday, and is already owned in 23% of leagues.  If he's available, get him now.  Look for 5-10 HR's and 10-15 SB over the next two months at minimum.

The wasteland between First Base and Shortstop

One of my leagues is a straight points league, rather than head to head or rotisserie.  The 2B position, with the exception of a few nice surprises, has been decimated by injury... along with Aaron Hill remembering that he is Aaron hill.   Below were the leading point getters last year, along with thier average draft position this year, and the current point leaders for 2010:

2009 Leaders                2010 Avg Draft Pick       2010 Leaders             2010 Avg Draft Pick

1)  Aaron Hill                49th                                  1) Robinson Cano       44th
2)  Robinson Cano       44th                                  2) Martin Prado          214th
3)  Chase Utley              5th                                    3) Rickie Weeks           117th
4)  Ian Kinsler                18th                                  4) Brandon Phillips     42nd
5)  Dustin Pedroia          27th                                 5) Dan Uggla                 76th
6)  Brian Roberts            48th                                 6) Kelly Johnson            216th

If you weren't smart enough to draft Cano, or lucky enough to get a bargain on Uggla, Pardo, or Weeks, it's very likely that your 2B situation has been a mess this year.  Hill has completely disappeared off the face of the earth.  Utley had an incredible start, had a huge slump, and then has been on the DL since late June.  Kinsler is headed to his 2nd stint on the DL this year starting today.  Pedroia is trying to come back from a broken foot.  And Roberts has missed the first 3 1/2 months of the season and is currently hitting .194.

At the beginning of this year, 2B looked very deep.  For those of you that waited on a 2B, good for you.  The rest of us are trying to piece together an infield.

Trade Deadline resources

The trading dealine can be a very exciting time, both in MLB and in fantasy baseball.  Closers can become set up men, and vice-versa.  Struggling arms and bats can come alive all of a sudden when putting on a new uniform.  With 2 full days left before the July 31st deadline, here are some solid resources to track what's going on:

ESPN (Buster Onley):  MLB Rumors

ESPN (Jared Stegall):  Bleacher Report

Yahoo! (Mark J. MIller):  Scoop Du Jour

MLB (Tim Dierkes):  MLB Trade Rumors

Pro Sports Daily:  MLB Trade Rumors

Happy hunting!

Filling in for Joel Piñeiro

We are now getting to the time of year when injuries could very well end the season for a lot of players.  In a fantasy baseball world, this is actually ok sometimes.  In single year formats, it makes the drop/carry on DL decision very easy (although having to drop a key starter in the stretch run is rough). 

With Joel Pineiro being shut down for 6-8 weeks, there's a pretty good chance he will miss the rest of the season.  Even if he does come back, it might be too late to help anyone.  Pineiro was just starting to heat up, winning 7 of his last 8 decision with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.21. WHIP over that period, prompting most leagues to have someone scoop him up.

Now that he's out, here's a list of possible replacements.  All of the following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of leagues (Yahoo leagues):

- Madison Bumgarner (40% owned) - 2.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and coming off 4 straight wins.  Next young stud ace coming from the Giants system

- Ted Lilly (49% owned) - His win-loss is not impressive, but his 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP are.  He has been given absolutely no run support this year (2.7 runs per start), so his record should look a lot better, and that kind of support can't keep up all year... can it?

- Travis Wood (21% owned) - Love this kid.  2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP!  He went head to head with Roy Halladay, matching him 9 one-hit, shutout innings with 8 K's in an extra inning ND a few weeks ago.  He has given up 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his 6 starts, and is averaging almost 8K's/9 innings.  The Reds are fighting for a playoff spot, and Wood has been incredible so far.

- Jonathon Niese (29% owned) - 3.43 ERA and slightly high 1.37 WHIP.  Has been extremely consistant this year.  In his 18 starts this year, he has only given up 4 or more runs 4 times.  Solid 7K/9Inn and is 6-2 over the last 2 months.

Spot starter for Thursday July 29th

Hot pick for tomorrow:

Madison Bumgarner:  (40% owned) -  2.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and coming off 4 straight wins.  If you need pitching depth, and he's still available in your league, grab him now.  The Giants are hot, and so is Bumgarner. 

Spot starter for Tuesday, June 22

After a crazy week and a half at my real job, I'm back and ready to get some good momentum going.  My last few picks got me back to .500, and I'm feeling pretty good about myself after putting some serious distance between me and the rest of the league in my points league.  Here's who I like for Tuesday:

Tommy Hunter (12% owned) -- a previous pick for me.  I love Hunter.  He left his last start early with right hip discomfort, but this kid is a horse and is ready to go tomorrow.  I will probably pick this guy every 5th day until he's owned by 50% of the league.  I really like him at home against Pittsburg tomorrow.  His 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at either.

Spot starter for Friday June 11

Huge complete game win for Saunders last night (I'll try not to hurt myself patting myself on the back...).  Most importantly, it got me back to .500 -- which for picks of guys under 50% owned is not bad.  Here are my stats so far:

Starts    W     L     Inn     CG   Shutout    Hits     ER     BB     ERA     WHIP
12          5      5     73.1    2            1          83      41      18      5.03      1.38

Here's who I like for Friday:

No one makes me super confident tomorrow, but I have a hunch about Luis Atilano (2% owned).  Not a power pitcher, but has had a great start to his rookie season.  His only bad start came against the Mets, and it was the second time he's faced them.   If you look at his numbers against teams the first time he faces them,  he is sporting a 5-1 recored with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  He goes against the struggling Indians at home tomorrow who are worse at home then they are on the road.

Spot starter for Thursday June 10

Well, no repeat performance for Galarraga last night, but a decent ND.  Here spot starter stats so far:

Starts     W     L     Inn     H     ER     BB     ERA     WHIP
11           4      5     64.1  76    40      17      5.60      1.45

I really like my pick for tomorrow:

- Tommy Hunter - (6% owned) - Hunter had a very impressive season last year, and threw a complete gave victory against the Rays in his only start this year.  Hunter has the Nolan Ryan old school mentality.  He is an innings machine with great command and I like him a lot tomorrow at home vs. Seattle.

Sell low.... or wait?

Now that June is here, it's time for most fantasy owners to look at their under-performing (or non-performing) players and start do decide just how much longer they are willing to carry them.  Case in point:  Mark Teixeira.  If you have drafted Tex, you most likely did in the first round (avg pick 10.2 in Yahoo leagues), which means that you are probably pulling your hair out right now knowing that you either need to trade him for half his value, or sit him on the bench and start a backup 1B -- neither are good options for your #1 draft pick.

Teixeira is a notoriously bad April hitter -- career .237 avg and .700 OPS, a far cry from his .286/.911 career numbers.  And when the calendar turned May and Tex hit .400 over the first 8 days, including a 3 HR game, he seemed to back to business as usual.  So what do you make of the fact that on June 8th, he's hitting .211 with a .689 OPS and only 8 HR's... playing in that stadium... in the middle of that lineup...??  Honestly, I don't know.  But what I do know is that you definately don't want to sell low, unless you get comparable undervalue in return (such as Prince Fielder, for example).  Otherwise, you need to ride out the slump.  He struggled almost as bad last year (granted not into June) and still finished with 39 HR's and and 122 RBI.  It's a stretch to think he's going to hit those numbers, but a couple 8-9 HR months are not out of the question.  For a little encouragement, here are Tex's career numbers for June - Sept

June:  170 games -- .271 avg, 40 HR, 128 RBI, .900 OPS
July:   174 games -- .284 avg, 41 HR, 119 RBI, .898 OPS
Aug:   198 games -- .311 avg, 49 HR, 162 RBI, .972 OPS
Sept:  183 games -- .305 avg, 50 HR,  166 RBI .994 OPS

So it's obvious that Tex gets better as the year goes on.  Unless there is something seriously wrong with him physically right now, expect his numbers to return to normal over the next few weeks.  In the meantime, hope there are no more 5 strikeout, 0-6 games...

Spot starter for Wednesday June 9

No pick on Sunday, and Armando Galarraga going tonight.  Here's who I like on Wednesday:

-- Joe Saudners (13% Owned) - Saunders has had an up and down season so far, but I really like him tomorrow @ Oakland.  Saunders last start against Oakland was his second career shutout back in May and he is 10-4 career against Oakland.  He's also facing Dallas Braden who is 0-3 in his last 5 starts since his perfect game.  I would not use Saunders past tomorrow, but he's a solid pick if you need a fill in.

Spot starter for Tuesday June 8

No pick for Monday since I couldn't find anyone I liked enough and I need to get back on track.  Saturday and Sunday were better:  Cahill no decision and Brett Myers win.  Here is my pick performance so far:

Starts     W     L     Inn     Hits     ER     BB     ERA     WHIP
   10        4      5     59.2    69      38      15     5.76       1.42

Here's my pick for Tuesday:

- Armando Galarraga (11% owned) - I picked him last week when he was only 2% owned.  I'm expecting another strong (though probably not perfect) start against another struggling offense:  Chicago.  He may not make my under-50% rule after this week.

Spot starter for Sunday June 6

Ugh... my picks have been stinking on ice.  RA Dickey did pull out the win, but Davis got shelled.  Going forward, I'm going to only have 1 pick per day.  I'm spreading my self a little thin.  Here's the results for week 1:

Starts    W        L       Inn      Hits   ER   Walks ERA WHIP
  8         3         5        46.2     56    33     10        6.36   1.41

Pick for Sunday:
 
Bret Myers (12% owned) - coming off a 10K performance against Washington, Myers is have a solid comeback season this year with a 3.04 ERA and has not given up more than 4 runs all season.  I like him tomorrow at home vs. the Cubs.

Spot starters for Saturday June 5

Ok, back on the horse.  Tim Wakefield got hit around a little yesterday.  I thought the Sox offense would get him off the hook for the loss, until the bullpen imploded.  Here's my spot starter results so far and my picks for Saturday:

Starts      Wins     Losses    Innings    Hits    ER    Walks    ERA    WHIP
    6                2           4            37.0      40     22        8         5.35      1.30

- Trevor Cahill - (7% owned) - not sure why this guy is such a big secret.  Next in the long line of great young A's pitchers.  Currently is 4-2 with 3.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  He's 2-0 at home this year with a 0.77 ERA (1 earned run in 11.2 innings).

That's all I got for tomorrow.... there are a lot of aces going.

Spot starters for Friday, June 4

Well, I would have loved to say that one of my spot starters threw a perfect game (and unofficially, he did), but that's how it goes.  Congrats Armando Galarraga!  Yesterday was an improvement, and here are my results so far:

Starts   W   L   Inn     Hits   ER  Walks    ERA    WHIP

   5        2   3    31.0   32     16      8        4.65      1.29

Picks for Friday:

- Wade Davis (27% owned) - Davis has only had one start all year where he's given up 5 earned runs.  The Texas hitters haven't seen him yet, and CJ Wilson has struggled in his last 3 starts.

- RA Dickey (1% owned) - It's scary to pick a knuckleballer two days in a row, but Dickey has pitched great in his 3 starts this year, and he Mets offense is starting to wake up.

Relief help in Milwaukee

Well, you can pretty much stick a fork in Trevor Hoffman... he is done.  Somehow, he was able to dazzle major league hitters in '09 with that 85 mph fastball, and better than average change-up.  But this year, batters have been teeing off like they were taking batting practice.  After a couple of scoreless no-pressure, late inning, mop up appearances, he took the ball in the 7th inning last night with a two run lead and proceeded to pour gasoline all over the field.  All together, 1 inning, 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs, and another giant L for maybe the best closer ever to take the mound.

So, short term, the Brewers need to assign a closer (look for them to possibly make a deal if they can stay in contention).  As of now, the most likely candidate is John Axford.  Axford is currently owned in only 15% of Yahoo leagues, so if you need short term help in the saves department, he will make a nice pickup.  He has overpowering stuff, and is showing signs he could be a real closer.  He has 13K's in only 8 innings, and opponents are only hitting .148 off of him.  A 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP make him a slightly better option to Villanueva to close games out.

Spot starters for Thursday, June 3

So, I got off to a rocky start on Tuesday... Lilly lost a game he should have won, Harden won a game he should have lost, and Blackburn... well, Blackburn sucked.  Hopefully my guys tonight will do a little better.  Since, unlike most blogs that pick, I hold myself accountable,  here's where we're at after 1 day:

Starts Wins Losses Innings Hits ER Walks ERA WHIP

   3       1         2      16.1    23   12     7     6.61   1.84

Thursday is a short schedule, so I only have one pick:
 
Tim Wakefield - (4% owned) - Wakefield is a much better pitcher at home than on the road, and is 11-6 in his career against Oakland.  Also, the Sox offense is on fire.

Also, special props to David Huff for taking the mound just a couple days after taking an A-Rod line drive to the head.  Grande huevos amigo!

Spot starters for Wednesday, June 2

A couple of guys I like for tomorrow that no one has:

- Armando Galarraga - (2% owned) -I have to admit, I've had a fantasy crush on this guy for a couple years.  He helped me a lot in 2008.  Back in the Tiger rotation, he's had mixed success in his 2 starts so far this year.  His career stats are eerily identical between home and away, but I like him tomorrow at home vs. the struggling Cleveland offense and Carmona who is coming off 2 straight losses.

- Jeff Francis - (17% owned) - Francis is trying to get back to pre 2009 form, and two of his three starts this year have been solid.  He will miss Lincecum/Cain/Zito/Sanchez and get to throw against Todd Wellenmeyer instead.  He comes into the game with a 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and is still well below most owners' radars.

Good luck!

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